Exxon Wants to Repeat Its Guyana Success in Trinidad. Should You Buy the Stock Now or Wait for the First Well?

ExxonMobil (XOM) is exploring for oil in Trinidad and Tobago, a region Exxon believes could be a major new offshore discovery after its success in Guyana. The company secured exploration rights to a vast deepwater block near Guyana, where it estimates roughly 11 billion barrels of recoverable oil. John Ardill, Exxon's head of global exploration, says Trinidad represents a geological extension of Guyana's successful operations.

However, turning geological potential into actual oil reserves is a different matter. Exxon's upcoming Trinidad exploration block, TTUD-1, covers over 7,165 square kilometers, an area larger than the total landmass of Trinidad and Tobago. Exploration will be technically challenging and costly due to the block's depth of 2,000 to 3,000 meters.

While the initial exploration well could take a couple of years to drill, Exxon has already committed $60 billion to developing Guyana's offshore resources, with the goal of eventually raising production to 1.7 million barrels per day by 2030. The company expects to select its first drilling location in Trinidad by mid-2027, with the first exploration well potentially following in late 2027 or early 2028.

Despite the risks, Exxon continues to grow its existing operations. In Q2 2026, the company reported $14.5 billion in earnings and $23.6 billion in operating cash flow, returning $9.4 billion to shareholders. It's increasing production in the Permian Basin and is set to begin operations on a fifth offshore production vessel in Guyana, which will add another 250,000 barrels per day to its output.

So while Trinidad is an exciting potential source of long-term growth, it's not the foundation of Exxon's current profitability. That gives investors some flexibility. A disappointing Trinidad exploration result wouldn't erase Exxon's established production, refining operations, or cash-generating assets. While a successful discovery would provide additional confidence, it could also drive up the stock price, making the entry point less attractive.

That said, for investors looking for exposure to an established energy company with additional growth potential, waiting for a successful discovery might be too risky. Exxon's existing business supports the investment case, and a major discovery would just be an added benefit. Buying now, before the first exploration well, could be a sensible choice for those comfortable with the long-term potential.