EIA raises oil price forecasts for 2027
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the Brent crude spot price to average $105/bbl in the fourth quarter of 2026 before declining to around $84/bbl in 2027. The EIA forecasts Brent crude’s price to stay elevated this year, amid escalating Middle East hostilities that have rattled global energy markets and choked maritime transit through ...
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised its oil price forecasts for 2027. The agency now expects the Brent crude spot price to average $105 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026 before falling to approximately $84 per barrel in 2027. The EIA's projection is influenced by increasing tensions in the Middle East, which have shaken global energy markets and restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
This disruption has been compounded by reduced oil flows and production curtailments. The EIA also highlighted the potential for continued oil price volatility due to ongoing attacks on the East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia. The agency notes that global crude oil inventories have decreased by an average of 1.9 million barrels per day in the third quarter of 2026, adding pressure to oil prices.
The EIA emphasizes that its price outlook is closely linked to the duration of the US-Israel conflict with Iran and its impact on crude production. While the Middle East is currently experiencing constrained oil flows, the EIA expects this situation to gradually improve as alternative methods for exporting oil from the region are developed.
The agency predicts a return to higher oil inventories by the end of the second quarter of 2027, and a recovery in OPEC's liquid fuels production.
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