Diesel shortage to persist into 2027 as Iran war disrupts supply, IEA warns

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has forecasted a prolonged global diesel shortage, with supplies failing to meet demand until the second half of 2027. The crisis is triggered by the ongoing Iran war, which has disrupted supply chains and hindered the recovery of refined-product exports from the Middle East. Wholesale diesel prices have surged to record highs, reaching nearly double the pre-war levels in some regions.

The US experienced the first-ever diesel pump price surpassing $6 per gallon in September, a 70% increase since the war commenced. The shortage stems from a sharp decline in shipments from the Middle East and Russia, with exports dropping over 60% annually to 820,000 barrels per day. Gulf export routes remain constrained, and Ukrainian drone strikes have damaged Russian oil refineries.

Higher shipments from the US and China have not been enough to offset these losses. While US and European inventories are at 14-year and 25-year lows, respectively, the IEA expects higher refinery output to restore a seasonal diesel surplus by early next year. However, this recovery will be insufficient to replenish the depleted inventories, and further cuts in consumption or economic costs may be necessary to balance the market.