DemosAU MRP poll has Labor winning clear majority of House seats on just 27% of primary vote

A recent DemosAU Multilevel Regression with Poststratification (MRP) poll conducted between August 4 and September 19 indicated that the Labor Party could secure a clear majority of House of Representatives seats with just 27% of the primary vote. In contrast, the National Party (One Nation) experienced a significant decline, dropping from 60 seats in the May to July poll to 24 in the current one.

Meanwhile, the Victorian election on November 28 is approaching, with the latest Resolve poll showing the Greens gaining three points to 15%, while the Coalition, Labor, and One Nation remain unchanged. The federal MRP poll, based on a sample of 9,740 people, projected that Labor would win 84 out of the 150 House seats, far exceeding the 76 needed for a majority.

The Coalition was expected to win 34 seats (up 21), One Nation 24 (down 36), the Greens 0 (down 3), and all other parties eight (up 2). The central projection for Labor's seat range was 72-85, suggesting they were fortunate to secure 84 seats in the central projection. National primary votes in this MRP poll were 27% for Labor (up one from the previous poll), 26% for One Nation (down four), 22% for the Coalition (up one), 13% for the Greens (steady), and 12% for others (up two).

One Nation's primary vote in rural and regional seats dropped seven points to 34%. In the matchup between Labor and One Nation, voters preferred the Coalition. However, when comparing Labor to One Nation, Coalition voters' preferences flowed to One Nation at a slower rate than One Nation's preferences flowed to the Coalition. A Morgan poll released a fortnight later, from September 28 to October 11, using a sample of 2,655 people, showed Labor at 26% (steady), One Nation at 24% (down 1.5), the Coalition at 21.5% (down one), the Greens at 15% (steady), and others at 13.5% (up 2.5).

By respondent preferences, Labor led One Nation by 54.5-45.5, a one-point gain for Labor. Labor led the Coalition by 53-47, a 0.5-point gain for Labor. In terms of 2025 election preference flows, Labor led the Coalition by 53.5-46.5, a 1.5-point gain for Labor. The Victorian Resolve poll conducted between October 6-10 with a sample of 1,000 people showed the Coalition at 28% (steady), Labor at 25% (steady), One Nation at 23% (steady), the Greens at 15% (up three), independents at 4% (down four), and others at 5% (steady).

Analyst Kevin Bonham estimated the Coalition would lead Labor by about 52-48, a slight gain for Labor. If this occurred, the Coalition would likely need One Nation's support to govern. Premier Ben Carroll's net likeability declined by nine points to -11, while Liberal leader Jess Wilson's increased by four points to +23. In a three-way preferred premier question, Wilson received 29% (up one), Carroll 22% (up two), and One Nation state leader Warren Pickering 14% (up six).

On the biggest influence on their vote, 27% of respondents cited government spending and debt, and 21% mentioned youth crime.