Copper’s bullish momentum likely to continue for a few more months
The Iran war, supply-demand imbalance and threat of US tariffs are expected to keep the red metal price elevated
Copper, an industrial metal, is expected to maintain its bullish momentum over the next few months due to factors such as the Iran war leading to a sulfur shortage, supply-demand imbalance, and potential US tariffs on the metal. Research firm BMI has revised its 2026 average annual copper price forecast upward to $13,500 per tonne from $12,700 previously, while JP Morgan Global Research predicts the price to reach $14,800 in the fourth quarter of the year.
Australia's Office of the Chief Economist (AOCE) attributes copper's recent surge to mine disruptions and the resumption of the Congo's copper concentrate export ban, which has limited supply, combined with strong US copper import demand. The three-month London Metal Exchange (LME) copper contract is currently trading at around $1,4575 per tonne.
Copper has gained over 15% year-to-date and more than 5% in the past month. Despite macroeconomic headwinds, copper has averaged $13,471 year-to-date. BMI notes that geopolitical conflict in West Asia and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have driven up copper prices, while JB Morgan's Shearer points to continued tight mine supply, weak production, and strong demand trends around electrification tied to data center capex as factors that remain supportive for copper prices.
AOCE expects global copper demand to remain strong through 2031, driven by clean energy technologies, data centres, and broader electricity infrastructure. The looming threat of US tariffs on refined copper remains the clearest near-term catalyst for copper prices.
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