Centro Studi Confindustria: stima Pil 2026 alzata a +1%, il 2027 resta a +0,6%
Pubblicato il Rapporto di previsione d’autunno del CsC
The Centro Studi Confindustria has raised its forecast for Italy's GDP growth to +1% for 2026, aligning it with the government's projection in the Dpfp. The organization also maintains its expectation of a slowdown to +0.6% growth in 2027. This outlook, presented in their autumn prediction report, aligns with the previously estimated growth of +0.5% and +0.6% respectively.
The +1% growth for this year is essentially in line with the change already accumulated, implying no growth in the third and fourth quarters due to a lack of cyclical acceleration and the correction for working days. The scenario thus indicates a "slowdown in the final months of the year that will carry on into 2027". The prediction made by the Centro Studi Confindustria is based on current legislation and does not include the national safeguard clause for increased defense and energy security expenses, which amount to 14.4 billion for 2026-27.
The organization warns that energy prices will be the main vulnerability factor for the Italian economy in 2027, with the risk of "zero growth" if the average annual Brent price reaches $126 per barrel.
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