Brazil Inflation Forecast 2026 and 2027
Economists expect Brazilian inflation of 5.22% in 2026 and 4.30% in 2027, above the 4.5% ceiling this year. The forecast, the target and what it means for you. The post Brazil Inflation Forecast 2026 and 2027 appeared first on The Rio Times .
According to the latest Brazil inflation forecast from the Focus survey, the median expectation for 2026 is 5.22% IPCA, which exceeds the official target of 4.5% by 0.72 percentage points. This figure has risen for four consecutive weeks, reaching 5.01% a week prior and 4.90% in September. The 2027 forecast of 4.30% is within the target band but above the 3.0% center.
Analysts expect Brazil's Selic interest rate to decrease to 13.25% in December, prompting further cuts. The central bank projects a 2026 inflation rate of 5.2% and a 2027 rate of 3.9%, with a higher-than-usual risk bias. The probability of inflation exceeding the 4.5% ceiling in 2026 stands at 90%, according to the latest central bank report.
Housing prices have been the primary driver of the inflation surge, with a 2.31% increase in September, followed by a 7.98% rise in household electricity bills after a credit on Itaipu hydropower bills ended. Airfares also rose 9.66% during the same period. The IPCA rose 0.82% in September 2026, the highest monthly increase since March 2026.
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