Banks of England chief economist ‘sceptical’ of markets’ interest rate expectations
The Bank of England is unlikely to vote for the four interest-rate hikes forecast by financial markets, according to its chief economist, who added the central bank should have raised rates in the early stages of the Iran war. Huw Pill, who has the most hawkish track record on the Monetary Policy Committee, played down [...]
The Bank of England's chief economist, Huw Pill, expressed skepticism about markets' expectations for a significant increase in interest rates, despite financial markets forecasting four rate hikes in the next year. Pill argued that the central bank should have raised rates earlier in the Iran war, as the natural tightening from the bank's decision to leave rates unchanged has not yet materialized in second-round effects.
He stated that while traders can effectively bet on the Bank of England's interest rate path via swap rates, the market currently suggests a full percentage point increase is unlikely. Pill emphasized that the Bank of England cannot rely on the "hall of mirrors" effect from natural tightening and would have been better to move early to influence market expectations.
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