Alaska LNG project becomes $54bn flashpoint for would-be Asian buyers

Alaska's massive liquefied natural gas (LNG) project has become a focal point for foreign investment, particularly from Asian buyers, amid supply disruptions from the Iran war. US President Donald Trump stated that Taiwan had agreed to purchase 30% of the LNG from the project, with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirming a $4.4 billion investment from Taiwan to develop the pipeline.

However, South Korea has denied any firm commitment, stating there are no investors or buyers committed to signing sales and purchase agreements. The project aims to make a final investment decision on the pipeline this year, with a separate one for the export terminal planned for 2027. The promise of Alaska LNG is significant, as it would drastically reduce the delivery time for LNG shipments, cutting the journey from Alaska to Japan by more than 9,600km compared to the US Gulf Coast.

The project's cost is estimated between $44.5 billion and $54.5 billion, with an annual capacity of about $2.2 billion to $2.7 billion per tonne. Pipeline development, running from Alaska's North Slope to Nikiski, a distance of 1,300km, could cost between $13.2 billion and $16.9 billion. Investors remain cautious, with only six non-binding offtake agreements signed to date, totaling 13 million tonnes per year.

The project faces competition from LNG projects in Canada and the Gulf Coast, with major Middle Eastern players increasing their interest through the Gulf Coast.