AI math isn't mathing: infrastructure spending forecast to outstrip expected revenue
Analyst predicts 80 percent of neoclouds will disappear as standalone businesses by 2030
Gartner predicts that AI infrastructure spending will outpace expected revenue from 2026 to 2030, leading to potential write-downs of capital assets and a shake-out of neocloud operators. The firm estimates that AI providers will invest $1 trillion in AI infrastructure in 2026, with an additional $6 trillion in spending from 2027 to 2030.
However, AI revenue from datacenters is projected to be only $3.6 trillion during the same period, insufficient to cover capital expenditures and achieve a 12% return on invested capital. This shortfall may force AI infrastructure operators to divest assets or see neocloud operators, particularly GPU-as-a-service providers, struggle and ultimately exit the market.
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