AI-Generated Viruses Pose a Threat. But Natural Viruses Are a Greater Risk.

Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to design dangerous viruses, but natural viruses pose an even greater risk. A recent article in Science demonstrated that AI could design bacteriophages, viruses that infect bacteria, using information about known viruses. As a virologist, the author believes that guidelines and safeguards for AI use in virology and biology must be established by scientific societies immediately.

Historically, the emergence of AI-generated viruses has drawn parallels to the creation of recombinant DNA technology and cloning in the 1970s. At that time, concerned scientists called for a moratorium and convened the 1975 Asilomar Conference, leading to oversight and guidelines for biological research that are still in effect today. The author advocates for a similar moratorium and conference for AI use in virology and biology.

However, it is crucial to consider the comparison between AI-generated viruses and naturally occurring viruses. Converting AI-generated designs into real viruses requires extensive laboratory work, which may yield only a few functional viruses. On the other hand, humans constantly encounter new viruses from nature through zoonosis, which is the transfer of viruses from animals to humans. The author cites 10 animal-derived viral pandemics or epidemics in the past 108 years, claiming over 100 million lives.

In nature, viruses have the ability to randomly mutate, creating millions of variants as they infect and spread in animals or people. Some of these random changes weaken the variant, while others make no difference. However, occasional random changes improve the variant, making it more efficient at infecting humans or evading immunity. These superior variants are selected and propagated, leading to the virus's evolution.

Nature is far more proficient at creating viruses than humans and computers. Currently, the generation and spread of viruses in nature through random change and worldwide replication remain a far greater threat than AI-designed viruses. The U.S. government's lack of preparation for a future pandemic and its apathy towards known and emerging infectious diseases leave Americans vulnerable to the constant threat of naturally occurring diseases.