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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revealed that the rapid growth in global trade during 2023-2025 was significantly bolstered by a surge in AI-related trade. According to the IMF's chief economist, Silvana Tenreyro, the AI trade boom accounted for a massive 29% increase in global trade, with the overall growth in global trade having been only 4.6% in its absence (8.3% in its presence).

Tenreyro, who joined the IMF in August, is a former professor at the London School of Economics. She highlighted that AI-related investment and trade had been a major catalyst for global growth. However, she also cautioned that AI supply chains are highly concentrated in a few countries and sectors, which could potentially create chokepoints.

The IMF pointed out that a market value correction and AI-related cybersecurity threats could also pose risks to growth and financial stability. Tenreyro explained that the IMF's forecast assumed the AI boom would fade over time, but an alternative scenario suggested that sustained productivity gains from AI could limit the inflationary impact.

Conversely, if the AI boom does not result in productivity gains, the growth benefits could diminish and inflation could rise. Tenreyro concluded that a reassessment of the AI boom's profitability gains could lead to a downward adjustment in demand.