Singapore’s MAS to tighten policy ‘very slightly’ as inflation risks persist

Singapore's Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) will likely tighten monetary policy slightly, aiming to curb inflation risks stemming from oil prices and the artificial intelligence boom, according to market expectations. Bloomberg's survey of 17 out of 20 economists anticipates a steeper policy band at the central bank's upcoming meeting, while three foresee no change.

The MAS, which primarily utilizes exchange rate adjustments over interest rates, has gradually tightened its settings throughout the year, increasing the slope in April and making a minor modification in July. This move is interpreted as a 25-basis point reduction, less than the typical adjustments. The trade-dependent nation grapples with the twin challenges of surging energy import costs and accelerated economic growth fueled by the AI sector, both of which contribute to persistent inflation.

Core inflation, a key metric monitored by the MAS, hit a two-year peak of 2.2% in August, within the central bank's 1.5%-2.5% forecast for the year. However, public transport fares are set to rise by 7% in December, significantly higher than the previous year's pace. Electricity and natural gas fees, on the other hand, are expected to decline this quarter.

Bank of America Corp and Maybank Securities Pte Ltd suggest additional MAS actions in January if inflation pressures remain unresolved, potentially marking Singapore's most extended tightening cycle since 2022. The MAS, being the first to tighten policy among Asia's central banks this year, follows the US and Israel's military actions against Iran, which led to a sharp surge in global energy prices.

The country's forthcoming third-quarter GDP data is expected to reveal slower growth, at 5.1%, after a standout June quarter driven by electronics exports. However, retail sales data released last week indicated contractions in certain sectors, including motor-vehicle parts and food and beverages. Despite these mixed signals, the MAS projects Singapore's economy to expand between 4.5% and 5.5% this year, a robust growth rate by historical standards.