IMF cuts Argentina’s 2026 growth forecast

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reduced its 2026 growth forecast for Argentina from 3.5% to 2.1%, according to a report released during the organization's annual meetings in Bangkok, Thailand. This forecast places Argentina below regional and global averages. The IMF also increased its unemployment forecast for the country.

The new figures were presented alongside a lower 2027 growth projection for Argentina, now estimated at 3.5% instead of the previous 4%. Despite this, the IMF's projected growth for 2027 remains above the Bank of Argentina's Market Expectations Survey. The report suggests the recovery will be slower than in 2025, with gradual improvements in macroeconomic imbalances.

The IMF anticipates lower inflation, a surplus in the external sector, and stable unemployment. Energy sector improvements are expected, with oil prices projected to average US$96 per barrel this year, a 40% increase from 2025. This optimism comes despite Argentina's challenges, including rising global public debt and weaker Latin American growth projections.