IMF cuts Argentina’s 2026 growth forecast

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reduced its growth forecast for Argentina in 2026, from 3.5% to 2.1%. This new projection places Argentina below regional and global averages. The forecast for 2027 also declined, from 4% to 3.5%, but remains higher than the Bank of Argentina's Market Expectations Survey (REM), which predicts 1.5% growth in 2026 and 3% in 2027.

During the IMF and World Bank's annual meetings in Bangkok, Argentina's Economy Minister Luis Caputo, Vice Minister José Luis Daza, and Argentine Central Bank (BCRA) President Santiago Bausili were present. The report also lowered Argentina's 2027 growth forecast, although it remains above the BCRA's Market Expectations Survey.

The IMF expects the recovery to be slower than in 2025, with gradual improvements in key macroeconomic imbalances. The outlook includes lower inflation, an improving external sector (with the current account moving into surplus), and relatively stable unemployment.

Latin America's growth is projected to be just 2.3% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, significantly lower than Asia's growth. Brazil, Argentina's main trading partner, is expected to see a slowdown from 2.2% in 2026 to 1.9% in 2027. This slowdown is due to restrictive monetary conditions, fiscal stimulus withdrawal, and global uncertainty.