Burnham may have already missed his best chance to call an early election

Andy Burnham has steadfastly refused the idea of an early election, despite new polling from City AM and Freshwater Strategy indicating a changing electoral landscape. The poll reveals that Labour's support has surged to 29%, a nine-point increase since July, placing them six points ahead of Reform UK, which has dropped six points to 23%.

Meanwhile, the Conservatives have risen one point to 22%, while the Green Party has fallen three points to 9%, and the Liberal Democrats have decreased two points to 10%. If these results were mirrored nationwide, Labour would need just three seats more to secure a majority in Parliament, making it simple for Burnham to retain his position with a renewed mandate.

A clear majority (58%) desires an election by year-end 2027, while 31% would prefer one as soon as possible, although this pressure predominantly stems from the right rather than the left. In Burnham's Labour party, the left-wing vote is being consolidated through policies like taxpayer-funded social care, electoral reform, a new EU relationship, and a tougher stance on Israel.

This shift has been bolstered by the Green Party's internal struggle, with 36% opposing their recent 'Zionism as racism' motion compared to 22% supporting it. In just one month, the Green Party's net approval plummeted 14 points to -21, while Bernie Sanders' personal approval fell an additional 10 points to -30, an astonishing decline in such a short period.

The Budget approaches in three weeks, and 67% expect taxes to rise, 54% anticipate getting worse off, and 40% believe it will harm the economy. While the left-of-centre bloc at 48% (Labour + Liberal Democrats + Green) is comparable in size to the right-of-centre bloc (Conservatives + Reform UK), they cannot be simply combined in a first-past-the-post system.

Reform voters harbor no trust in the Conservatives to keep their promises, especially on immigration. Conservatives do not favor Reform UK, and would rather support Burnham over Farage by 53% to 34%. Conversely, voters across left-wing parties are generally content with Burnham staying in Number 10 and are willing to vote tactically to prevent a Reform UK or Conservative victory.

The possibility of an early election may be closing. Burnham's net approval has dropped 14 points to +3 this month. With taxes rising, poorer prospects, and potential economic damage, the public now prefers tax cuts with less spending over tax hikes (55% to 33%). Considering these factors, the most opportune time to initiate an election may have been this month, before the Budget and the onset of a long, cold political winter.