8% GDP growth a tall order, says Nobel laureate

Renowned economist and Nobel laureate James Robinson has expressed skepticism about President Prabowo Subianto's ambitious goal of achieving 8% annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Indonesia. Addressing a gathering at Jakarta-based policy think tank Prasasti, Robinson noted that while rapid growth is theoretically possible, historical evidence suggests such high growth rates are the exception rather than the norm.

Robinson, co-author of "Why Nations Fail" with Nobel laureate Daren Acemoglu, presented data showing that only 18 countries worldwide have sustained 8% annual growth for a decade or longer. These nations include South Korea from the 1960s to the 1980s, China during the 1980s to 2000s, Singapore and Taiwan in the 1960s to 1970s, Japan in the 1950s and 1960s, and Myanmar in the 2000s.

The economist highlighted that rapid growth is not a universal phenomenon, emphasizing that only a small number of countries have experienced this level of growth. He questioned why some countries manage this feat while others do not, stating that the issue is multifaceted and not straightforward. Robinson pointed out that countries with abundant natural resources, such as the Gulf states with oil or Botswana with diamonds, have achieved exceptional growth; however, the fate of that wealth largely determines a nation's trajectory.

Some countries have successfully invested in development, while others, like Equatorial Guinea, have squandered their resources.

In summary, Robinson's remarks underscore the challenge of achieving 8% annual GDP growth, emphasizing that such growth is the exception in the global landscape.