Oil falls on hopes Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire will boost supplies

Oil prices declined on Monday, anticipating increased Russian supplies following a reported energy ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia. Brent crude futures dropped $1.54, or 1.47%, to $103.18 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude slipped $1.54, or 1.68%, to $90.31 a barrel. ICE gasoil futures fell 3% to $1,436 per barrel.

US President Donald Trump announced this energy ceasefire on Friday, stating that Russia would supply over 300,000 metric tons of diesel to US and global markets. Russia pledged an additional 500,000 tons in November and another 1 million tons immediately thereafter. The IEA's Executive Director, Fatih Birol, suggested that all members assess the need for further diesel releases, prioritizing diesel deliveries for countries that have not yet completed their pledged volumes.

However, the Middle East conflict continued to support oil prices above $100 a barrel, with the Houthis claiming responsibility for an attack on Riyadh's international airport and Saudi authorities reporting new attacks on the airport. Goldman Sachs raised its Brent crude price forecast for December to $90 a barrel, although they maintain that continued adaptation of Middle East supply will eventually reduce crude oil prices.