Oil falls on hopes Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire will boost supplies
Oil prices slipped on Monday on expectations of more Russian supplies after US President Donald Trump said Ukraine and Russia had agreed to halt attacks on each other's energy facilities following a US diesel-supply deal with Moscow.
Oil prices declined on Monday, reflecting hopes that Russia and Ukraine would agree to a ceasefire and increase energy supplies. US President Donald Trump announced on Friday that Russia would provide over 300,000 metric tons of diesel to US and global markets, with additional shipments planned in November and early December. Brent crude futures dropped $1.54, or 1.47%, to $103.18 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude fell $1.54, or 1.68%, to $90.31 a barrel.
ICE gasoil futures experienced a 3% decline to $1,436 per barrel. Global diesel demand is projected at near 29 million barrels per day, according to the International Energy Agency. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy expressed the need to review the energy ceasefire details, while Russia remained silent on the matter. The stockpile reduction eased some supply pressure, according to KCM Trade chief analyst Tim Waterer.
However, the Middle East conflict continued to support Brent crude prices above $100 a barrel, with ongoing tensions in the region and attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure. Goldman Sachs forecast Brent crude prices to average $90 a barrel in December 2026 and $73 in 2027, with the potential for renewed escalation posing significant net upside risk.
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