Uncertainty is high as the 2026-27 summer crop season starts

As South Africa's 2026/27 summer planting season commences, agricultural experts face a range of challenges and uncertainties. Wandile Sihlobo, the Presidential Envoy on Agriculture and Land and chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa, notes that farmers are navigating strong soil moisture levels against looming threats of an El Niño drought and rising input costs due to the US-Iran war.

In the previous season, farmers planted around 4.6 million hectares of summer crops, with maize accounting for 59% (2.7 million hectares) and soybeans for 26% (1.2 million hectares) of the total area.

While the season ahead is expected to be challenging, there is optimism that the favourable soil moisture levels at the start of this season may encourage decent plantings. Short-growing crop varieties could also perform better if early moisture continues, as is currently being observed. However, timing remains critical, as predictions indicate that an El Niño cycle is in effect, with a strong likelihood of drier and warmer conditions during the coming summer.

This is expected to impact the north-eastern half of South Africa, potentially reducing rainfall and increasing temperatures.

The Crop Estimates Committee is set to release its report on farmers' intentions to plant for the 2026-27 season on October 27, which will cover maize, sunflower seed, soybeans, groundnuts, sorghum, and dry beans. Based on this report, farming activity is expected to increase later in the month. Despite the uncertainties, there is cautious optimism that the sector may maintain its planting area, as recent rains have improved soil moisture levels and farmers are optimistic about domestic grain and oilseed supplies. Nevertheless, farmers must remain vigilant and prepared for potential challenges ahead.