Parliament split on EU climate rules opens way for conservative deal with far right

The European Parliament's three largest political groups - Socialists and Democrats, Renew Europe, and the Greens - have announced their opposition to an EU proposal to relax carbon pricing rules. This move could potentially lead to a rift, with conservative lawmakers aligning with far-right groups to weaken the bloc's climate ambitions.

The center-left Socialists and Democrats, the centrist Renew Europe, and the Greens all aim to preserve an ambitious path to net zero under the Emissions Trading System, requiring heavy industry to cut emissions more rapidly than the proposed changes. This stance puts them at odds with the center-right European People’s Party (EPP), which broadly supports the European Commission's proposal.

The EPP has traditionally worked with Parliament's biggest groups to strike a political middle ground, ensuring bipartisan support for the ETS, Europe's most powerful tool for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, recent amendments from the S&D, the Greens, and Renew suggest significant disagreements over key aspects of the ETS reform.

The main issue revolves around the linear reduction factor, determining how quickly the supply of pollution permits decreases annually. Liese's proposal would delay this date to the 2040s, while the other groups want stricter reductions in the next decade. The risk now exists that the EPP may collaborate with the far right, potentially weakening climate ambitions in the process.