Denuclearising North Korea would ‘defy history’ as US, allies missed the boat
The denuclearisation of North Korea has become an “increasingly improbable” goal and the United States and its allies should move beyond it to devote their diplomatic efforts to talks on arms limitations and crisis communication, the director of the US-based North Korean analysis website 38 North said. Recalling the 20 years since North Korea carried out its first nuclear test on October 9, 2006,…
The denuclearisation of North Korea has become a distant goal, with the director of the US-based North Korean analysis website 38 North, Jenny Town, stating that it is "increasingly improbable". Since its first nuclear test in 2006, North Korea has advanced significantly, testing six times by 2017, including a hydrogen bomb claim.
The 2017 test-firing of an intercontinental ballistic missile marked a pivotal moment in Pyongyang's weapons development, altering the threat and US allies' perception of US extended deterrence. Despite reassurances to allies, North Korea's possession of both theatre and long-range capabilities has heightened fears. Town notes that North Korea's development has moved from conditional to irreversible, declaring its nuclear status as a "responsible nuclear weapons state".
She asserts that such a reversal of course by North Korea, considering its current advanced state, would defy historical precedent. Town argues that pushing for denuclearisation, given North Korea's preconditions, limits the diplomatic efforts' effectiveness by neglecting risk reduction, crisis communication, and arms limitations dialogues.
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