Analysis: Ghana’s yellow fever numbers reveal a gap between vaccination and protection

Ghana recorded approximately 450 suspected yellow fever cases between June and September 2026, with 74 cases reported in the Upper West Region and three laboratory-confirmed cases. Suspected cases are individuals who meet criteria for investigation, while confirmed cases have undergone testing and classification. The distinction between suspected and confirmed cases is crucial, as the 2021 outbreak showed a confirmation rate of about 35%.

However, the Ministry of Health has not provided a national breakdown of confirmed, negative, and pending results for the 450 suspected cases. The Upper West Region accounts for around 16.4% of these suspected cases, with only three confirmed cases out of 74. This provisional confirmation proportion does not estimate the region's eventual infection rate.

National vaccination coverage figures, estimated at 94% in 2021, 95% in 2022, and 88% in 2023, provide a general indication of vaccination rates but do not establish the vaccination status of people currently under investigation. Even with 91% coverage, local pockets of low protection may exist, and the national average does not account for unverified vaccination records.

The yellow fever vaccination card serves as proof of protection or proof on paper, and risks include issuing a card without a verified vaccination event or a person receiving the vaccine but lacking a usable certificate. Ensuring accurate vaccination records is crucial to prevent gaps between documented coverage and actual vaccination.