WTO lifts global trade outlook as AI boom powers Asian growth
Global supply chains have proved more resilient than expected to disruptions from the Middle East conflict, the World Trade Organization’s chief economist Robert Staiger tells CNA’s Olivia Marzuki in an interview.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) has revised its global trade outlook, projecting stronger growth than previously anticipated due to the rapid expansion of the artificial intelligence (AI) industry. According to the WTO's chief economist, Robert Staiger, demand for AI-related products accounted for nearly half of global merchandise trade growth in the first half of 2026.
The WTO now expects global merchandise trade volumes to increase by 3.9% in 2026, up significantly from the March forecast of 1.9%. This growth rate is projected to further accelerate to 4.1% in 2027.
The AI investment boom has shielded global trade from the economic disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict. Despite crude oil exports falling by around 24% and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports declining 47%, alternative suppliers helped mitigate the decline to approximately 6% for crude oil and 1% for LNG. Fertilizer markets also adjusted to the disruptions, and trade flows were rerouted through alternative ports and corridors.
WTO data shows that Asia is driving the global trade growth, with Asian economies contributing more than 100% of the total growth. AI-enabling goods, including semiconductors and servers, have seen a surge in demand, accounting for 47% of global merchandise trade growth in the first half of 2026. This sector has nearly doubled its share of world merchandise trade, rising from 8% in 2024 to 14.8% in the first half of 2026.
Written by urgent.news from CNA - Business's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
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- WTO lifts global trade outlook as AI boom powers Asian growth channelnewsasia.com
