WTO lifts global trade outlook as AI boom powers Asian growth

The World Trade Organization (WTO) has revised its global trade outlook to reflect a stronger than expected growth trajectory driven by the artificial intelligence (AI) boom. WTO chief economist Robert Staiger stated that AI investment has been a major factor in bolstering global goods trade, allowing it to withstand the economic impacts of the Middle East conflict.

As a result, the WTO now forecasts global merchandise trade volumes to increase by 3.9% in 2026, up significantly from its previous forecast of 1.9% in March. This growth is expected to accelerate to 4.1% in 2027.

The impressive performance of global trade is primarily being driven by AI-related products, with demand for AI-enabling goods such as semiconductors and servers accounting for 47% of the 3.5% merchandise trade growth witnessed in the first half of 2026. Staiger noted that the AI boom has continued to accelerate despite earlier expectations of moderation. Asia is now the primary contributor to global trade growth, accounting for over 100% of the total increase, as the region produces a significant portion of AI hardware.

However, the benefits of this trade growth are not evenly distributed. While Asian economies are expected to generate 4.0 percentage points of the 3.9% global merchandise trade increase, other regions are experiencing declines. European exports are forecast to fall 0.1%, and Middle Eastern exports are projected to drop by an alarming 17.2% due to the ongoing conflict.

The WTO has also downgraded its forecast for commercial services trade growth to 3.3% this year, down from 4.8% in March, as the conflict continues to impact transport and travel.