WTO hikes 2026 trade growth forecast on AI boom

The World Trade Organization (WTO) has markedly increased its forecast for global trade growth in 2026, citing the artificial intelligence (AI) boom as a key driver. Merchandise trade is now projected to expand by 3.9%, up from 1.9% forecast just months prior. This optimism stems from supply chain adaptations and soaring AI investments, which have helped mitigate the impacts of the Middle East crisis.

WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala highlighted the economy's resilience, noting that integrated global economies and rule-based trading systems help ensure essential goods reach businesses and households despite disruptions. However, she acknowledged that not all economies benefitted equally, with some feeling the conflict's effects more acutely.

Despite supply chain adjustments, energy supplies and prices for key commodities like fertilizers rose due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Global crude oil and liquefied natural gas exports also saw modest declines. Nonetheless, global container traffic surged by 3.9% during the first seven months of 2026, and strong AI-related investment more than offset negative effects.

AI-enabling goods, such as semiconductors, servers, and digital infrastructure, surged by 67% year-on-year, accounting for nearly half of the global trade growth. WTO economist Robert Staiger expressed surprise at the trade's robustness despite the conflict, warning that any slowdown in AI investment could similarly dampen trade growth.

AI infrastructure spending is expected to rise by at least 30% this year, with further increases anticipated in 2027, solidifying AI as a major driver of global trade.