WTO hikes 2026 trade growth forecast on AI boom

The World Trade Organization (WTO) has significantly increased its forecast for global trade growth in 2026, citing the artificial intelligence (AI) boom and supply chain adaptations as key drivers. Merchandise trade is now projected to grow by 3.9 percent this year, up from the initial estimate of 1.9 percent in March. The WTO predicts a further increase to 4.1 percent growth in 2027, compared to the earlier forecast of 2.6 percent.

WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala explained that the resilience of the global economy and a rules-based trading system enabled essential products to continue flowing despite disruptions. She noted that an integrated world economy allows for smoother trade even when confronted with challenges. However, some regions, such as the Middle East, have been hit harder, with export performance expected to remain weak and the Middle East facing a sharp contraction of 17.2 percent.

Despite these regional disparities, the WTO highlighted that supply chains successfully adapted to disruptions in energy, fertiliser, and transport markets caused by the Iran war. Global container traffic even increased by 3.9 percent during the first seven months of 2026. Strong demand linked to AI investment helped offset the negative effects of the conflict, with global crude oil exports falling by only about six percent and liquefied natural gas exports dropping by one percent.

The surge in AI investment accounted for 47 percent of global merchandise trade growth in the first half of 2026, with a 67 percent year-on-year increase in trade for semiconductors, servers, and other equipment essential to AI. WTO chief economist Robert Staiger emphasized that while the Middle East conflict did not reduce trade as much as feared, a slowdown in AI investment could lead to a slowdown in trade overall.

He noted that Asia is expected to record the fastest merchandise export growth at 9.9 percent, followed by North America at 5.7 percent, while Europe is projected to see weak export performance, down 0.1 percent, and the Middle East to experience a sharp decline of 17.2 percent.