Why BJP deals a body blow to Badruddin Ajmal as Nagaon sees a shift in Muslim vote

The recent bypoll in Nagaon, Assam, has dealt a significant blow to Badruddin Ajmal, a key Muslim leader in the state. With BJP candidate Devasish Sharma winning the seat with 49.52% of the votes, Ajmal saw his support dip to 38.9%. The AIUDF, led by Ajmal, has traditionally been the main opposition to the Congress, which had a near-monopoly over the Muslim vote in Assam for over two decades.

However, the 2023 delimitation exercise shifted the constituency's demographics, with its Muslim population now estimated to be over 50%. This shift has led to a change in the political landscape, with Sharma's popularity and background as a former IAS officer and popular local deputy commissioner winning him support from a section of minority voters.

Ajmal's political stock has fallen, and the BJP's rise has shifted the allegiance of a significant portion of the Muslim vote from the AIUDF to the BJP.