Oil Price Today (October 9): Crude oil dips 1% to $103 as Trump rules out Iran attack before midterm elections. What are analysts saying?

Crude oil prices dropped 1% to $103 per barrel on October 9 as US President Donald Trump ruled out any Iranian attack before the November midterm elections, alleviating concerns over potential supply disruptions. Trump claimed the US was holding productive talks with Iran, asserting the Strait of Hormuz remained under US control and that oil shipments through the strategic waterway were flowing at record volumes.

This came after a surge in attacks on oil and commercial tankers in the critical shipping route, with the UK Maritime Organization reporting at least nine incidents in the first week of October, accounting for half of September's total attacks.

Analysts were uncertain about the endgame of the conflict, with JPMorgan acknowledging many economic thresholds set by the US administration had been crossed. Goldman Sachs warned of the possibility of oil prices reaching $120 a barrel if attacks on vessels in the Middle East intensified. However, they also anticipated a return to prices around $80 a barrel should exports resume at normal levels.

The risk of further supply disruptions added to the potential for higher oil prices, with traders monitoring Hurricane Isaias, which could impact about 1.3 million barrels per day of oil supply in the US Gulf Coast region.