October 7 haunts Netanyahu's election campaign, but his bloc holds its ground

As the 20-day span between October 1 and October 7 drew to a close, opinion polls indicated that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc was still ahead of the opposition, with 55.5 seats compared to the opposition's 50. This remained true even after excluding the outlier Channel 14 and i24 polls, which had given the Likud significantly more seats. The opposition had narrowed the gap, losing six seats compared to Netanyahu's bloc gaining only about two-thirds of a seat.

Both sides sought to use the October 7 commemorations to their advantage. The opposition highlighted the perceived failures of Netanyahu's government and called for a full, independent investigation into the events of that day and its aftermath. They argued that a leader who had neither taken responsibility nor allowed a thorough inquiry could not be trusted to prevent future disasters.

On the other hand, Netanyahu emphasized the military successes and changes in the region that had strengthened Israel since October 7. He argued that despite the tragic events, the country had emerged stronger and more secure.

The flydubai security incident served as a fresh illustration for both sides. Bennett and Eisenkot used the incident to challenge Netanyahu's record, arguing that even after the military achievements, serious vulnerabilities remained. They highlighted the passengers' resourcefulness and courage as evidence that citizens could rescue themselves, rather than relying on government institutions.

This prompted Netanyahu's supporters to counter that the incident demonstrated the need for stronger institutions and accountability, further fueling the election debate surrounding the impact of October 7 on the upcoming vote.