Lower dependence on H-1B, local hiring: Why Indian IT stocks rose despite US shock

The US has temporarily halted the Permanent Labour Certification Programme (PERM), which has caused concern for Indian IT companies that rely on this program to hire workers in the United States. This suspension was expected to disrupt operations for these companies, particularly as 50-60% of their revenue comes from US clients.

Initially, Infosys and Wipro's US-listed ADRs fell by up to 5% and 4% respectively after the announcement, but they later turned green. Indian IT stocks, however, started the day with strong gains, with Wipro, Infosys, and HCL Technologies up by around 2-3%. TCS, which reported its July-September quarter earnings earlier, surged over 5%, while the overall Nifty IT index rose by 3%.

This unexpected performance raises the question: why are these stocks, traditionally sensitive to US developments, showing such strong gains? The Permanent Labour Certification Programme is crucial for Indian IT players as many US-based companies depend on Indian IT firms for software services, AI implementation, and maintenance due to lower wage costs, which provide an affordable deal for clients. In turn, Indian IT companies derive a significant portion of their revenues from the US.

Traditionally, Indian IT companies served US clients using H-1B visas for employees working on-site, particularly for high-value projects. However, this began to change after the COVID-19 pandemic, with many Indian IT majors adopting offshoring and nearshoring strategies. This meant employees worked remotely and in similar time zones as the clients, reducing the need for H-1B visas.

The situation was further accelerated by the Trump administration raising the annual fee for new H-1B visa applications to $100,000 in September last year. Indian firms have also started hiring more US citizens for onshore operations.

Despite this new move by the US, Indian IT companies have enough buffer to absorb the impact without a significant effect on their earnings. Senior management, already operational for 10-20 years, is less affected than the additional requirement of hundreds or thousands of new hires. Additionally, Indian IT companies have been acquiring US-based software companies, adding American nationals to their payroll.

While the sector has faced a 26% drop in the Nifty IT index this year, Indian IT stocks are expected to recover as the global environment improves.