Berechenbare Risiken – unberechenbare Politik? Warum Deutschland jetzt aus Worten Gesetze machen muss

In the world of economics, there exists a fundamental distinction that is crucial for understanding entrepreneurial decisions: risk and uncertainty. Risk can be calculated, priced, and managed. One knows the rules of the game, even if the outcome remains uncertain. Uncertainty, on the other hand, defies any formula, as the rules of the game themselves continually change. Dr. Daniel Steiners, © Roche Pharma AG

Companies that develop new technologies, build production capacities, and pursue long-term future projects are willing to take risks. Few industries exemplify this more than the research-driven pharmaceutical and biotech sectors. It takes 10 to 15 years and billions in research and development before a new drug reaches patients.

The likelihood of failure along the way is over 90%. This risk is an integral part of our business model, which is oriented towards innovation. It is also a prerequisite for the groundbreaking advancements that have been achieved in medicine in recent years.

What hampers future decisions, however, are uncertainties stemming from political volatility. Those who formulate future promises in legislation, especially when it comes to cutting the red tape that stifles innovation and progress, counteract any industrial policy and suffocate trust in its infancy – at which point, the strongest signal no longer helps.

This is precisely what we have recently experienced in political debates regarding Germany's pursuing of a research-driven pharmaceutical and biotech industry. On one hand, an ambitious commitment to the Pharma location in Germany was made in the coalition agreement – a pharmaceutical strategy under the leadership of the Federal Chancellery.

A strong signal! On the other hand, however, drastic interventions into existing rules. Legislation solely aimed at once again plugging the financial holes on the side of health insurers, primarily at the expense of the industry through artificial price caps and compulsory discounts. Those who formulate future promises, but chiefly cut innovation and progress in the day-to-day of legislation, counteract any industrial policy and suffocate trust in its infancy – the strongest signal no longer helps. A dangerous domino effect

When trust wanes, an industrial location does not implode with a loud bang. Instead, a subtle chain reaction sets in, with each dominos top knocking over the next. And clearly, the first stones of Germany's health and research location have already been toppled – with direct consequences for the economy, supply, and security. Drain of risk capital: Billions in risk capital are globally mobile and flow into those markets where innovation can be a successful business model.

Currently, the USA accounts for over 50 percent of the global pharmaceutical market, while Germany accounts for only 4-5 percent. With regulation that undervalues innovation, Germany loses its appeal, and private investments will increasingly flow into those markets that create strategically consistent innovation-friendly conditions.

Loss of research and innovation power: Where capital departs, scientific substance also shrinks. The European share of global pharmaceutical research has fallen dramatically in recent decades from over 40 percent to just under 30 percent; the share of clinical trials has halved within a decade to 9 percent. Germany itself has long since fallen behind: In the WIPO Global Innovation Index, we are no longer among the ten most innovative economies in the world.

Threat to medical care: A market that does not fairly honor innovation is unattractive for medical breakthroughs. Today, we see that Germany is losing its role as a global supply innovator: One third of newly approved medicines in the USA no longer reach patients in Germany. Particularly alarming: Two thirds of these therapies are preparations with acknowledged high innovation status.

Loss of sovereignty: In times of geopolitical upheaval and fragile supply chains, medical key technologies have long since become a currency for national resilience. Neglecting research and production in one's own country gives away options and places Germany in dangerous dependencies when it comes to supplying its population. A chance for a paradigm shift

Sustainability, innovation power, and sovereignty cannot be defended through short-sighted tinkering. To stop the domino effect that has engulfed our health location, a change of mindset is now required; away from distribution debates towards a reliable commitment to innovation. For the first time, medical progress will no longer be thought of solely from the cost side; instead, it will be measured by what the research-driven health industry achieves for our country through research, development, production, and high-quality jobs.

This includes honestly admitting that the financial imbalance of health insurers arises from structural inefficiencies in the system, not from medical progress. On the contrary: Innovative medicine is not a cost factor, but an investment in the future. The consistent application of state-of-the-art diagnostics, digital processes, and innovative therapies could already release over 40 billion euros annually – directly in the health system and indirectly as a positive effect on economy, growth, and welfare.

The political moment has arrived to initiate a paradigm shift. A recently proposed expert commission outlined specific ways in which companies investing in Germany could be supported.