Sino-American stability without trust

The recent summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping aimed to maintain stability between the two nations. They agreed on a "constructive China-US relationship of strategic stability on the basis of respect, fairness, and reciprocity." However, the interpretation of these terms differed, with China less enthusiastic about trilateral arms-control talks.

Both sides emphasized regular leader-level communication as the primary safeguard against accidental escalation. They have scheduled four summits in a single year, including three in four months, which would be unprecedented in US-China relations. The two-month extension of the trade truce was seen as a compliance-observation period, rather than a resolution of underlying issues.

Both governments agreed to extend preferential tariff treatment on approximately US$30 billion worth of "non-sensitive" goods and establish a bilateral agricultural working group. However, investment efforts stalled due to legal and political obstacles on the US side. A bilateral dialogue on AI was established, but disagreements persist regarding definitions, incident classification, and risk-management frameworks.

The Taiwan issue produced the most contentious diplomatic exchange. The Chinese foreign affairs ministry called for opposition to "Taiwan independence," while the US ambassador to China stated only that America's policy on Taiwan had not changed. This issue remains politically volatile in the US, especially during midterm elections.

Surprisingly, both sides agreed that Iran should not develop nuclear weapons and should not impose transit fees on international waterways. China's emphasis on this issue suggests growing stake in Middle East stability.

While both nations aspire to a cooperative relationship, the current state of Sino-American relations is characterized by stability without trust and deceleration without resolution. The hard issues, such as semiconductors and structural imbalances, remain unresolved. As the relationship oscillates between crisis and accommodation, the immediate task for both sides is to maintain stability.