Hoping for a ‘new normal’ climate is pointless. We must learn to adapt

Climate change is intensifying and it's becoming increasingly clear that we cannot expect a "new normal" climate. The phrase has gained popularity in discussions about the consequences of human-induced climate change, but it's not accurate. The idea of a predictable climate settling into a new state at 1.5°C of warming is not feasible. While global greenhouse gas emissions are slowing, they haven't peaked or started to decline, which means more heat, greater change, and heightened climate uncertainty.

The concept of a "normal climate" is problematic because it implies predictability, which climate does not offer. Climate refers to the statistical pattern of weather over a 30-year period, encompassing both typical weather and rare extremes. Our present knowledge gaps make it impossible to determine what we are leaving behind. The future holds unpredictable changes, including new and intensified weather extremes like drought-flood whiplashes and pyrocumulus clouds—phenomena that were previously rare.

Adapting to the unknown is essential. Although much of the focus in global climate negotiations has been on mitigation, reducing emissions alone hasn't been sufficient. The increasing urbanization, infrastructure, agriculture, and other human activities have made our world increasingly vulnerable to various climate-related risks. Even if there were no climate change, intense heatwaves, droughts, and bushfires would affect more people, houses, and businesses due to the altered landscapes and increased population density.

Climate change acts as a risk multiplier, making our ability to respond more limited as temperatures rise and rainfall becomes more variable. To effectively cope with these challenges, we must look for adaptive and empowering solutions, embracing the gravity of the situation while finding hope in human resilience.