Ethiopia and Eritrea edge closer to direct conflict as troops enter Tigray

Ethiopian and Eritrean forces have moved closer to direct conflict in the Tigray region, as Eritrean troops crossed into Ethiopia and came under fire from Ethiopian drones. Dr Jalale Getachew Birru of the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project noted that Ethiopian National Defence Forces drones had targeted Eritrean troops near Guada.

Residents of Adigrat reported seeing Eritrean vehicles carrying soldiers enter the town on Wednesday. Ethiopia demanded the troops leave, while Eritrea accused Ethiopia of fabricating a "self-defense" narrative to justify its aggression. The incident follows Ethiopia's recent reclamation of Mekelle, the Tigrayan capital, from the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF).

Eritrea is suspected of backing a coalition of armed groups, including the TPLF, to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Eritrea's motives may be to destroy the TPLF, dating back to the 1998-2000 border war, or to create a buffer zone hostile to Addis Ababa. The commander of the pro-government Tigray Peace Force, Gebreigziabher Beyene, said Eritrea is deliberately deploying forces to prevent the fighting from spilling into Eritrea.

Ethiopia closed its embassy in Asmara and expelled 10 Eritrean diplomats, accusing them of threatening national security. In response, Eritrea cut ties with Ethiopia. The US warned against a new military conflict in the Horn of Africa and urged both nations to exercise restraint. This development also highlights Egypt's complex relationship with both Ethiopia and Eritrea, particularly in light of their respective disputes over the Nile and Red Sea.