Eritrean troops seen inside Ethiopia's Tigray as conflict fears grow

On 7 October, multiple reports surfaced that Eritrean soldiers had entered Ethiopia's Tigray region, specifically the town of Adigrat. This development has sparked concerns over the potential escalation of conflict in the region after weeks of violence between forces from the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Ethiopian federal government.

Eritrean troops are said to have moved from the border town of Zalambessa towards central Tigray, with convoys passing through Adigrat and heading towards Edaga Hamus, a town located between Adigrat and the major city of Mekelle. Mekelle has experienced shifting control between the TPLF and the government.

Earlier this month, the Ethiopian government accused Eritrea of providing support to the TPLF, while the latter has denied receiving assistance from its neighbor. Ethiopia's government spokesman, Abraham Belay, warned that the country would retaliate if Eritrea were to cross the border. Meanwhile, Eritrean officials have rejected these allegations, with the country's information minister accusing Ethiopia of fabricating a story of self-defense.

The presence of Eritrean forces in Ethiopia comes amid heightened tensions over the Red Sea, with Ethiopia seeking access to the waterway following Eritrea's independence in 1991. Tensions have also escalated over the Tigray region, where the TPLF and its allies have been battling government forces since resuming hostilities on 23 September. The TPLF announced the temporary withdrawal from Mekelle on 3 October, while federal troops have since secured the city's airport.

The recent reports of Eritrean troops in Ethiopia have generated debate among analysts, with some believing a full-scale war between the two nations is likely, while others argue that the conflict's scale remains uncertain.