El Nino will intensify before its peak in December, says UN

The United Nations warns that El Niño will intensify before peaking in December, potentially becoming one of the strongest events recorded since at least 1950. This naturally occurring weather phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean is expected to raise global temperatures and disrupt rainfall patterns, exacerbating the effects of human-induced climate change.

El Niño occurs every two to seven years and lasts around nine to twelve months, warming surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and shifting winds, pressure, and rainfall globally. Currently, sea-surface temperatures in the relevant region are forecast to reach record levels during October-November-December 2026, with the WMO predicting a near-100% chance of the El Niño event persisting through February 2027.

The WMO chief, Celeste Saulo, explains that El Niño does not add new heat to the planet but rather releases warm ocean water that has been stored. The sea surface temperature anomaly, which measures temperature deviations from normal, has increased from 1.6C above normal in June to 2.5C above normal in August, and is expected to reach approximately 3.7C above normal during October-November-December.

This would be the highest anomaly since records began, surpassing the previous record of 2.6C set in 2015-2016. El Niño's impact on temperatures and rainfall patterns often peaks between November and February, but the temperature spikes typically occur later. This particular El Niño is already causing significant problems in regions like Central America, where drought and dying animals and crops are being reported.