China breakthrough projected to push sustainable jet fuel gross profit margin past 50%

Chinese scientists have created a catalyst that transforms synthesis gas into sustainable jet fuel, potentially boosting production and meeting net-zero carbon goals. The catalyst, tested in a thousand-tonne pilot, showed high efficiency in synthesizing jet fuel from woody biomass-derived syngas and a cobalt-manganese catalyst. Researchers from the Chinese Academy of Sciences estimate a gross profit margin exceeding 50% for a 100,000-tonnes-per-year jet fuel plant.

Sustainable aviation fuel, made from non-fossil fuel feedstocks like biomass, can reduce life-cycle carbon emissions by up to 80% compared to conventional fuel. The aviation industry contributes about 2-3% of global carbon dioxide emissions, and the International Civil Aviation Organization aims to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.

However, sustainable fuel production is projected to reach only 2.4 million tonnes in 2026, or 0.8% of total jet fuel consumption. Scaling production is the main challenge, as sustainable aviation fuel is currently several times more expensive than conventional fuel. The Chinese researchers' new catalyst demonstrated a CO conversion rate of nearly 83% and jet-fuel range hydrocarbon selectivity of over 67%, overcoming the activity-selectivity trade-off.

The team plans to build a 100,000-tonne annual capacity factory in Luzhou, Sichuan province, using biomass gasification-derived syngas as the feedstock before 2028. The plant could generate an estimated $302 million in annual sales revenue with annual operating costs of about $114 million, resulting in a gross profit margin of nearly 55%.