Beyond the summit: how US-China relations could still unravel

The Chinese National Day reception in Washington this year was more cheerful than in recent years, with the Chinese Ambassador Xie Feng delivering an upbeat opening speech. However, the mood outside the embassy was different, as Democratic opposition criticized President Trump's warm reception of Xi Jinping, who visited the US. Democrats accused Trump of betraying American allies and making a national interest concession.

Mainstream media either downplayed the visit or focused on its lack of tangible progress. Even Trump's allies privately admitted that the timing was not right for a major breakthrough, with the polarisation of American politics only set to deepen before the midterm elections.

There is little agreement among Americans on what trade deals to seek with China, with some arguing that lifting export controls on rare earths would accelerate China's chip development. Others believe that allowing advanced chips to China would maintain American "chip dependency." Relations on artificial intelligence and allowing Chinese investment in the US are equally controversial.

Despite Xi's visit, Taiwan remains a red line for Beijing, and Trump showed restraint on this issue. However, the administration may face pressure to act against Taiwan, particularly if the midterm elections go poorly for Trump.

Xi's state visit received positive feedback from Beijing, but there is uncertainty over whether the US, the European Union, Japan, and others will press China on unresolved issues as the G20 summit approaches. The midterm elections may also impact the US president's stance, with some predicting a shift towards domestic issues. While some aspects of the visit were positive, it would be unwise to assume that everything is proceeding smoothly between Beijing and Washington.