Why is the price of rice rising across the country? | Explained

The price of rice, a staple food in India, particularly in South India, has recently surged significantly. A 26-kilogram bag that previously cost around ₹1,800, or roughly ₹70 per kilogram, is now priced at ₹2,150, or about ₹82 per kilogram. Nationally, the area under rice cultivation for the Kharif (monsoon) crop has decreased from 449.18 lakh hectares in 2025-26 to 433.62 lakh hectares, a decline of 3.46%, according to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare.

This drop is attributed to an early warning of a 'below normal monsoon' by the India Meteorological Department in May, considering the potential impact of 'El Niño'. The central government advised states to shift to short-duration crops or less-water-intensive crops like pulses and millets. In June, Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, after consultations with state officials, research bodies, the IMD, and others, emphasized the need to change crop strategies in rain-fed areas.

The 2026 monsoon has been inconsistent, with periods of heavy dry spells and reduced rainfall. The southwest monsoon concluded 12.6% to 13% below the long-period average. The Minimum Support Price for rice is ₹2,440, but the open market price of a quintal of paddy has risen to ₹4,000, up from ₹3,400 just 10 days prior. A rice miller in Miryalguda, a major rice milling hub, remarked that he has never witnessed such high prices for paddy in his 52-year career.

Globally, rice prices have increased by 5.59% over the past month and by 52.4% compared to the same period last year. In India, Kharif rice cultivation commences in early June, with the crop being harvested in the middle of October and November. Rice millers and traders receive regular updates on the crop's status, which they use to bid for the crop before harvest.

The price is influenced by word-of-mouth discussions in the wholesale market. The demand for fine rice is higher, and its price has increased substantially. Coarse rice, which is easier to grow and harvest, is cultivated in substantial areas of the country, and its price has remained steady around ₹40-45 per kilogram. The arrival of fine rice in the market has not been affected yet.

Southern Indian states supply fine rice to ration card holders, and Venkataramana Chowdhury, the general secretary of the Miryalguda Rice Millers Association, stated that the price has peaked, and prices are unlikely to fluctuate significantly due to the anticipated weather and warnings from agriculture authorities.