Oil: Supply risks offset stronger flows – ING
ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that Oil supplies from the Persian Gulf are improving, but ICE Brent remains supported above $100/bbl as ongoing attacks on ships keep regional supply risks elevated.
ING analysts reveal that while oil supplies from the Persian Gulf are improving, ongoing attacks on ships continue to raise regional supply risks. The oil market traded under pressure for much of the session, with ICE Brent dipping towards $97/bbl, though it settled above $100/bbl due to lingering supply risks. The analysts highlight a tug-of-war between improved supply and persistent threats to it, stating that sustained lower prices would necessitate resolving these risks.
Middle distillates have seen recent weakness, with the ICE gasoil crack trading around $73/bbl compared to over $90/bbl in September. The reduced risk of a US diesel export ban and diesel releases from European strategic reserves have taken some pressure off the market. However, the front-end of the curve has experienced weakness, and diesel releases are only a temporary fix, failing to address underlying tightness in the middle distillate market.
Normalization of Persian Gulf and Russian diesel flows is essential to resolve this issue, but it seems unlikely to happen soon. The USD struggles to capitalize on recent recovery, trading with a negative bias below 0.7000 in the Asian session, while AUD/USD and USD/JPY show mixed trends. Gold maintains a cautious tone, while Dogecoin extends its losses.
The Indian Rupee remains stable after the RBI's monetary policy decision, and the ECB faces a challenging decision amid inflation and bond market pressures.
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