North Dakota rides soy boom, fueled by biofuels and China

Fargo, North Dakota, on October 7, witnessed a soybean boom driven by biofuels and China's demand, with the state's soybean plantings more than tripling since 2000. This surge outpaced the 17% national increase in soybean plantings, a trend fueled by advancements such as herbicide-resistant seeds and a decline in wheat demand. North Dakota's brutal winters are now giving way to warmer temperatures, making it a viable region for soybean cultivation.

However, the main obstacle to maximizing the state's soybean potential has been low yields, with North Dakota's soybean yields flat at around 35 bushels per acre for the past decade. Researchers are working to develop soybeans that can thrive in the state's short and often dry summers to bridge the yield gap with the Midwest. This summer was one of North Dakota's warmest and driest ever, with temperatures rising by more than 2.6 degrees Fahrenheit since 1900 and 2022 recording one of the warmest periods on record for the state.

Farmers are adapting by leaving crop stalks in the fields post-harvest to retain soil moisture and prevent erosion, a practice that was abandoned in the past. The introduction of genetically modified herbicide-tolerant crops, including Monsanto's Roundup Ready soybeans, has significantly eased cultivation, turning soybeans into North Dakota's most valuable crop.

The state's booming soybean industry is now bolstered by domestic demand for soy-based biofuels and exports to China, although trade wars have reduced the latter. Two new soybean processing plants in North Dakota can process 90 million bushels of soybeans a year, close to half of the state's projected 2026 harvest.