Gaza and the choice ahead

Three years ago, families in southern Israel faced a harrowing reality. Parents barricaded themselves behind doors as children sought refuge. Music festival attendees became targets in open fields. The Hamas-led assault left around 1,200 dead and 251 taken hostage. This October 7 event fundamentally altered Israel's security perception, leaving deep, lingering scars.

No one should ignore the impact of this day. The ensuing war inflicted catastrophic damage on Gaza. Tens of thousands lost their lives. Children grew up amidst displacement, hunger, and fear, making these experiences an integral part of their lives. Grief permeated homes, schools, and neighborhoods across Gaza. While I have dedicated much of my career to this conflict, anniversaries are a source of caution.

They evoke remembrance yet seldom foster reflection. Each year, we rehash familiar arguments, grievances, and loyalties, then move on, leaving unresolved the issues that sparked the tragedy. Nevertheless, one undeniable truth is hard to ignore: grief transcends borders. Mothers in Nir Oz and Khan Younis, regardless of their differing opinions and perspectives, share the profound experience of loss.

The critical question before Israelis, Palestinians, and the broader region is not whose suffering is more significant. Rather, it is whether enough lessons have been learned to halt the cycle of pain and suffering. A year ago, the parties agreed to a framework aimed at moving Gaza away from perpetual warfare. This framework envisioned demilitarization, deradicalization, transitional Palestinian governance, Israeli withdrawal, and reconstruction.

However, agreeing on the destination is only half the battle. Turning these commitments into reality remains challenging. Currently, three potential futures for Gaza exist. The first is a return to the same cycle of pain. Hamas would rebuild its military might, and Israel would prepare for subsequent confrontations. Another ceasefire would follow another wave of violence, with the underlying reality remaining unchanged.

This scenario has played out numerous times before. Each conflict aimed to restore deterrence, while each truce was marketed as a new beginning. Yet, the conflict persists because the conditions that gave rise to it have not fundamentally changed. The second potential future might seem more stable, but it is ultimately no more promising.

Gaza would remain in a state of constant uncertainty, with humanitarian aid masking the absence of governance. Reconstruction would progress slowly, if at all. The world may lose interest over time, but progress would still be absent. History provides little assurance that such arrangements will endure. Political vacuums often remain unfilled.

Despair offers a poor foundation for peace and serves as an enticing recruitment tool for extremism. The third future is more challenging but offers the most genuine path forward. It hinges on verified disarmament, deradicalization, accountable Palestinian civilian governance, phased Israeli withdrawal, and reconstruction. A mother in Nir Oz and a mother in Khan Younis, despite their differing views on the conflict's causes and nature, both understand the depth of loss.

Ultimately, Gaza's future must be shaped by accountable Palestinian civilian institutions, not competing armed factions. Under the leadership of US President Donald Trump, this path must be pursued.