Xeneta: US-bound container rates peak, but sharp collapse unlikely
Asia–U.S. container spot rates have likely peaked following the Hormuz crisis, but will remain elevated through 2026, an analyst says. The post Xeneta: US-bound container rates peak, but sharp collapse unlikely appeared first on FreightWaves .
U.S.-bound container freight rates have likely peaked at their highest levels since the Hormuz crisis, according to Peter Sand, a senior analyst at Xeneta. The market-average spot rates rose on October 1, reaching $8,346 per FEU for the West Coast and $11,523 per FEU for the East Coast, marking 1.4% and 0.7% increases from the previous week. These rates are more than four times their levels on February 28, prior to the crisis.
Sand attributes the rate hike to the easing of port congestion in Asia caused by the end of the typhoon season. Additionally, China's Golden Week and national holidays have reduced exports in early October. While demand is not strong, Sand expects elevated freight costs through the remainder of 2026. He predicts a steeper decline for the East Coast trade compared to the West Coast, with the gap between the two routes narrowing as rates retreat.
Looking ahead three months, Sand anticipates East Coast spot rates between $6,000 and $7,000 per FEU and West Coast rates around $4,500 to $5,500. He describes this as a significant but not catastrophic correction. The outlook remains vulnerable to further disruptions or geopolitical conflicts, which could dramatically alter the market once again.
Written by urgent.news from FreightWaves's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
