Why polls keep getting it wrong on Brazil's right
ONCE again, Brazilian pollsters missed the mark in a first-round election on Sunday, joining many around the world who have struggled to guage support for the right from voters who can be cagey about their choices.
Pollsters in Brazil once again failed to accurately predict the outcome of a first-round election on Sunday, joining a long list of pollsters worldwide who have struggled to gauge the support for right-wing candidates among voters. Right-wing senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, secured nearly 47% of the vote and is now the favorite to win the runoff election on October 25.
He edged past President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who received 45% of the vote. Despite Datafolha polling firm initially having Lula ahead by three percentage points, Quaest showed a one-point lead for Lula. However, survey firms have been caught off guard in other countries as well, such as the United States and Latin America, where polls failed to anticipate strong showings of libertarian figures like Javier Milei in Argentina and conservative Rodrigo Paz in Bolivia.
In Europe, right-wing and far-right parties have also outperformed predictions, often positioning themselves as anti-establishment options that capitalize on social discontent. Political scientist Marco Carvalho Teixeira explains that there is a phenomenon known as the "shy vote," where voters do not choose a candidate based on their merits but because they dislike the other options, and are unwilling to disclose their choice to pollsters.
Brazil's election featured high volatility among undecided voters up until the end of the campaign, making predictions particularly difficult. James Bosworth, a consultant and author of the Latin American Risk Report newsletter, noted that pollsters overestimated the support of third-party candidates, who garnered only eight percent of the vote, and that some voters who had expressed support for one of the smaller candidates voted strategically, opting for one of the leading candidates in a bid to make their vote count.
Bolsonaro's campaign manager, senator Rogerio Marinho, pointed out that the polling error was smaller this year compared to the 2022 first round, when polls gave Lula a 10-point advantage over Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro's campaign manager stated that the right-wing forces in Brazil have performed three to four percent better than polls predicted in the last four elections.
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