What happens if the UN cannot agree on Antonio Guterres’s successor?

As Antonio Guterres' term as UN Secretary General nears its end, the Security Council has yet to decide on his successor, leaving little guidance on what to do if they cannot reach an agreement. Rebeca Grynspan, Costa Rica's representative, led a recent straw poll with 10 votes in favor, but falls short of the nine needed for confirmation.

A candidate must secure at least nine votes and avoid a veto from any of the five permanent members, the United States, Russia, China, France, and the United Kingdom. The Council is set to hold another secret vote on Wednesday.

Ben Cohen, an international organizations expert, believes Grynspan is unlikely to be Washington's first choice but could become a compromise candidate if the permanent members reject other leading contenders and agree to accept her. Candidates from the business world, like a capable executive with expertise in budget management, could also be considered to address concerns about the UN's financial management.

However, such a candidate might face difficulties in gaining support from Russia and China, who hold veto power over the selection.

Historically, the UN has never faced a situation where a secretary general's term lapses without a successor or extension. In 1981, a deadlock occurred between China and the US, leading to the selection of Javier Perez de Cuellar of Peru in mid-December. In 1996, Eddie Annan was recommended and appointed just days later after a similar standoff.

A more recent precedent occurred in 1950, when the Soviet Union vetoed a second term for Trygve Lie, prompting the General Assembly to extend his term by three years without Council endorsement. A temporary solution could involve senior UN officials overseeing the organization, but the likelihood of the permanent members reaching a compromise before the post becomes vacant is high.