Tigray war may spill over to Eritrea — helped by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's rhetoric
Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is consolidating power after being sworn in for a second term. He must, however, contend with a regional alliance that opposes him and the conflict in Tigray that risks spreading.
Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has vowed to secure direct access to the Red Sea for his country after being re-elected to another term. However, this pursuit may provoke a conflict with neighboring Eritrea, as both nations have differing views on Ethiopia's control over Eritrea's port of Assab. Eritrea is highly concerned that Ethiopia's intentions could lead to occupation of its territory, or at least the seizure of the strategic port which oversees the Bab el Mandeb Strait - a crucial southern entrance to the Red Sea.
Following the swearing-in ceremony, Abiy Ahmed reiterated his commitment to achieving sea access through a "give and take" approach. The broader context includes a three-year Ethiopian campaign to gain control over Assab, which Eritrea views as a significant threat to its strategic position. Recent developments include the severing of diplomatic ties between Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Egypt, raising concerns about potential military escalation in Tigray region, where the Ethiopian National Defence Forces have recently taken control of the provincial capital Mekelle.
The Tigrayan population shares cultural, linguistic and religious ties with parts of Eritrea, and their leader, the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), is advocating for self-determination. As the TPLF regroups near Adigrat, an important gateway to Eritrea and the Red Sea, they may resort to guerrilla tactics, potentially spilling over into Eritrea.
Analyst Abdurahman Sayed from the London-based Horn of Africa Center for Regional Integration suggests that Ethiopia is waiting for Eritrea to enter the conflict, hoping to justify their military action by claiming they were the victims.
The involvement of nations such as the United States, Israel, and Djibouti, who host international airbases, might influence the outcome of the conflict. However, Ethiopia and Djibouti are vying for control over the main trade route from Djibouti to Addis Ababa, which could act as a pivotal factor in determining the course of events.
Written by urgent.news from DW English (Top Stories)'s reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
