Tigray war may spill over to Eritrea — helped by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's rhetoric

Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has been re-elected, with his new mandate potentially increasing tensions with neighboring Eritrea. Abiy aims to secure Ethiopia's access to the Red Sea, a desire that has strained relations with Eritrea over control of the port of Assab. This port is not only crucial for commercial interests but also strategically significant, as it oversees the Bab el Mandeb Strait, the southern entrance to the Red Sea.

Eritrea's strategic importance diminishes without this access. Ethiopia has recently severed diplomatic ties with both Eritrea and Egypt, possibly signaling a push for control of the Red Sea port by force. The Ethiopian army has begun mobilizing towards Eritrea's border, following the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front's (TPLF) retreat to an area near Adigrat, which serves as a gateway to Eritrea and the Red Sea.

The TPLF, which shares cultural, linguistic, and religious ties with southern Eritreans, might resort to ragtag fighting tactics. Analyst Abdurahman Sayed suggests that the Ethiopian government and army are waiting for Eritrea to enter the conflict, providing a justification for their attack. The conflict in Tigray may now spill over into Eritrea, with the TPLF potentially engaging in guerrilla warfare.

The United States has called for renewed diplomatic efforts, but global actors have largely remained silent on the matter.