The Commodities Feed: Oil supported by geopolitical risks despite supply gains

Oil prices are being supported by geopolitical risks in the Persian Gulf region, despite recent supply gains. While there are encouraging signs of recovery in oil flows from the Gulf, the market remains cautious about potential disruptions. The US-Iran deal is crucial in this regard, as any deal could reduce tensions. However, concerns remain high due to the history of attacks on critical infrastructure, such as Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline.

Despite this pipeline recently resuming operations, the threat of further escalation remains ever-present.

Kuwait has reported production at 75% of pre-war levels, while Saudi Arabia has reduced the official selling price of their Arab Light crude for November. This indicates a more favorable supply outlook. Meanwhile, the European gas market is vulnerable, with gas storage levels at 73% of capacity, down from 83% last year and below the 5-year average of 88%.

In the metals market, copper has edged higher as the region continues to face tight physical conditions. The uncertainty over potential US copper tariffs has led to increased demand, leading to stockpiling in the US, while inventories elsewhere remain constrained. Demand for copper is driven by sectors like electrification, renewable energy infrastructure, and data centre investment.

Gold also saw a slight increase, as investors sought refuge in safe-haven assets amid growing fiscal concerns in Europe. However, gains for precious metals could be limited by factors like higher Treasury yields, persistent inflation worries, and a stronger US dollar.

In the agricultural sector, sugar prices have continued to rise on supply concerns, with No. 11 raw sugar breaking above USc20/lb. The rally is attributed to mounting concerns over tightening global supplies due to adverse weather conditions affecting production in key regions. El Niño-related disruptions have shifted expectations from a surplus to a potential global deficit.

Brazil's excessive rainfall has disrupted cane harvesting and crushing operations, while India's below-normal monsoon rainfall has lowered production forecasts. European sugar beet yields are also expected to be 11% below the five-year average. This has impacted overall grain and legume exports from Ukraine, with exports falling 26% year-on-year in the 2026/27 harvest season. The decline in exports highlights ongoing disruptions to Black Sea trade flows due to Russian and Ukrainian attacks.