Oil prices hover near $100 as Middle East supply holds up, Gulf risks persist

Oil prices hovered near $100 per barrel on Tuesday, buoyed by stable Middle Eastern oil exports and the Gulf trade risks, according to wire material. Brent crude was trading at $100.6, up 24 cents, while WTI stood at $89.60, gaining 17 cents. The benchmarks had eased from around $103 after shipping data showed Middle Eastern crude exports exceeded pre-war levels on four days in the final week of September. Despite attacks on Gulf supply routes, oil shipments held up.

The G7 countries agreed to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves, pledging not to restrict energy exports. However, the improved supply flows have not eliminated concerns about future supplies, due to fresh attacks on key Saudi Arabian sites. The Yemen-based Iran-backed Houthis attacked Saudi facilities, including King Khalid International Airport, an Aramco refinery, and Abha airport.

The attacks come amid stalemate US-Iran talks and ongoing conflict between Saudi Arabia and Houthi forces, raising concerns over potential disruptions to Saudi Arabian oil exports.

Supply squeeze may continue beyond the immediate crisis, with oil industry executives at a London conference warning that shipping bottlenecks, deep refinery output cuts, and inventory withdrawals could keep global oil prices high beyond this year. The Strait of Hormuz, a major disruption source since the US-Israeli war on Iran, has been compounded by attacks on oil and gas infrastructure, impacting crude oil and refined fuel exports.

Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said it could take up to two years to replenish global oil stockpiles, while ConocoPhillips Executive Chair Ryan Lance suggests demand recovery may take until 2028 or 2029, with US benchmark WTI crude potentially reaching $70 per barrel.